System to raise weather forecast accuracy in the works

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http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/system-raise-weather-forecast-accuracy-works?singlepage=true

The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) is developing a modelling system that will provide more accurate predictions on where and when heavy rainfall will hit areas in Singapore, eventually providing a longer lead time for various parties to react.

The Singv Model, adapted from the Met Office’s unified modelling system in the United Kingdom, plans to narrow the scope of weather data supplied by global met services and incorporate local weather data to provide a more accurate forecast.

With more accurate forecasts, Dr Chris Gordon, Director for the Centre for Climate Research Singapore, noted that it would also help in contingency planning for floods here, for instance.

The current lead time is between 20 and 30 minutes, and the MSS hopes to eventually improve it to a few hours with the model.

At present, global forecasts can be produced at 12-hour intervals and at coarser spatial resolutions of about 25km — that is, providing weather data, such as temperature, humidity and wind conditions, for every 25km.

Dr Gordon noted that a 12-hour forecast might miss out thunderstorms that come and go in a few hours.

Thus, to produce more regular forecasts, local weather data — from weather radar and automatic weather stations, for instance — will be included in the model.